Oil's ugliest week in years ended on a flat note. WTI crude for December delivery settled Friday at $90.83 a barrel, 31 cents higher on the day. Brent for January finished at $98.32, 3 cents higher.
Friday's calm hides the damage. WTI lost about 13% across the week against the previous Friday's $104.12 settlement. Brent gave up a similar share, falling from $113.43 to $98.32. From its late-October peak near $104.99 to the $86.65 low printed on November 5, WTI slid 17.5%, per InvestingLive.
Bloomberg's verdict: the largest weekly fall since 2022. Reuters called Brent's slide the steepest weekly fall since COVID.
How the week unfolded
Monday set the tone. WTI ended the day at $96.46, down $7.66 or 7.9%, as traders priced a diplomatic opening with Iran. Brent shed nearly 8% alongside it, per QNC News. Democrats had taken Congress in the November 3 midterms, with Qatari mediators shuttling proposals between Washington and Tehran.
Wednesday brought the second leg. Both benchmarks plunged more than 8% in one session to their weakest settlements since late August, Reuters reported. Traders read the result as new pressure on the White House to bring the war with Iran to an end. Months of war premium started coming out in chunks.
Thursday flipped the tape. Brent jumped $3.67, or 3.9%, to $98.29 after fresh tanker attacks, per Rigzone figures cited by Swiss Financial Time. WTI printed its $86.65 low the same day. Reuters counted three more tankers hit in the strait on Thursday, while the UK maritime trade agency reported shipping attacks near a record pace; Brent had touched a low near $93 before the rebound, per QNC News.
Friday showed what the bounce was worth. WTI reached $92.53, then settled at $90.83, $1.70 under the high. The rebound held into the close. The week's trend stayed intact.
While diplomacy moved prices, supply policy sat still. Seven OPEC+ producers agreed on November 1 to keep December output at September levels: Saudi Arabia at 10.478 million barrels a day, Russia at 9.949 million, Iraq at 4.431 million. The full group meets next on November 29. The physical market gave the sellers no help either. US crude stocks fell roughly 0.9 million barrels over the week to October 30, per the EIA report of November 4 cited by InvestingLive.
Why it matters
Oil's fall cuts two ways. Easing war fears takes pressure off fuel costs and inflation, helping importers and fuel-heavy businesses. Fading demand would point the other way, toward weaker growth and softer earnings. This week's move sits in the first camp. Diplomacy drove it, not demand, and the stocks data backed that up: a draw of about 0.9 million barrels, not a build.
The scale resets the map. Front-month futures moved inside a $19 range from Monday, per Bloomberg figures cited by Swiss Financial Time. WTI tested $87 support on November 5 after four straight down days, and Brent had already fallen 7% on Iran diplomacy hopes on November 3 — this week closed that story with a settlement, not another leg down.
The dollar adds a second headwind. The dollar index jumped 0.77% to 102.26 on Friday after October jobs beat forecasts at 165,000. A firmer dollar makes dollar-priced oil dearer for buyers in other currencies. The Federal Reserve held rates at 3.75%-4% on October 28.
WTI levels: the $90-$92.53 test
InvestingLive rates the wider trend at minus 6 on its 10-point scale and the next session or two at minus 1. That reads bearish across the coming sessions, close to balanced in the immediate term. The slide has lost force, but no recovery has been proven yet.
| Level | Price | What it marks |
|---|---|---|
| Upside references | $93.59 / $95.15 | Next tests if the climb extends |
| Friday session high | $92.53 | Friday's high — buyers must take it and keep it |
| First test | $91.00-$91.32 | First foothold for any recovery |
| Breakdown line | $90.00-$90.05 | Line that, if lost, revives the bearish case |
| Friday session low | $89.07 | Friday's low — next stop if $90 fails |
| Support area | $87.13-$86.65 | The week's low zone |
A hold above $91.00-$91.32 opens the path to $92.53. A break past that high that holds on a pullback would argue buyers are regaining control, per InvestingLive. A failure near $91 that sends WTI back under $90.00-$90.05 puts $89.07 in play. A break there points back to $87.13-$86.65.
The week in numbers
| Benchmark | Previous Friday settle | Friday settle | Week change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Brent (January) | $113.43 | $98.32 | -13.3% |
| WTI (December) | $104.12 | $90.83 | -12.8% |
| WTI peak to trough | $104.99 late-Oct high | $86.65 Nov 5 low | -17.5% |
Baker Hughes counted 604 active rigs during the week ending November 6, the most since 2024. The oil-rig tally rose one to 463, per QNC News. Rapidan's Bob McNally sees an 80% chance fighting resumes, both benchmarks climbing back past $100 a barrel, per QNC News. Eurasia Group sees a 60% chance of renewed US strikes and 10% for a deal, Reuters reported, adding that escalation could lift Brent to $110-$125.
What to watch
- US consumer prices land Tuesday, November 10, at 8:30 a.m. Eastern (18:30 PKT). A hot print would feed the rate debate behind Friday's dollar jump.
- OPEC's monthly report follows Wednesday, November 11; the EIA's short-term outlook lands Tuesday, November 10.
- The next EIA inventory release comes at midday Eastern Thursday, November 12 (22:00 PKT), delayed by the Veterans Day holiday.
- The OPEC+ ministerial session on November 29 sets the 2027 output framework.
- Hormuz shipping: three tankers were hit Thursday; any fresh attack would test Friday's bounce fast.
Key points
- WTI settled Friday at $90.83, down about 13% on the week from $104.12; Brent at $98.32, down 13.3% from $113.43.
- Peak to trough, WTI slid 17.5% from about $104.99 to the $86.65 low of November 5.
- The trigger was diplomacy. Democrats took Congress in the November 3 midterms, and Qatari mediation lifted US-Iran deal bets.
- Thursday's tanker attacks in the Strait of Hormuz sparked a $3.67 Brent rebound. Friday's WTI high was $92.53.
- Next markers: US CPI Tuesday, OPEC report Wednesday, EIA inventories Thursday, OPEC+ meeting November 29.
MarketRadar take
Friday's flat settlement flatters the week. The 17.5% peak-to-trough slide stripped out months of war premium inside a week. The bounce from $86.65 to $92.53 recovered only part of it — WTI still closed $14.16 under its late-October high. The inventory draw and steady rig count argue the physical market did not break; the price broke on diplomacy, which can reverse in a day.
McNally's 80% resumption odds and Thursday's tanker attacks stand against every bearish level. While WTI holds below $92.53, the week's trend stays bearish. A hold above $91.00-$91.32 would be the first sign that changes.
