165,000.
That is how many jobs US employers added in October, more than double the 65,000 economists expected, and the number that sent the US dollar index to its largest one-day gain since June 17.
The currency market answered within minutes. The US dollar index rose 0.77% to 102.26 on Friday, November 6, after the Labor Department reported 165,000 new jobs in October against a 65,000 consensus in a Reuters poll, per Reuters. September's gain was revised up to 60,000 from 29,000, the jobless rate edged down to 4.1% from 4.2%, and traders lifted the chance of a December hike toward 80% (as of November 6), from about 67% on Thursday, per CME FedWatch data cited by Reuters.
The jobs print that reset December
October's payrolls beat the consensus by 100,000 jobs, or about 2.5 times the forecast. The September revision added 31,000 more jobs to the record. Taken together, the two-month payroll picture is 131,000 jobs stronger than traders believed a month ago, when the first September print showed only 29,000 new jobs. Average hourly earnings rose 0.4% in October to $38.00, with wages up 3.1% from a year earlier, per the Bureau of Labor Statistics release.
| Measure | September report | October report |
|---|---|---|
| Payrolls added | 29,000 (first print) | 165,000 |
| Reuters poll consensus | 90,000 | 65,000 |
| Unemployment rate | 4.2% | 4.1% |
| September revision | — | +31,000 (to 60,000) |
| Average hourly earnings | +0.3% m/m | +0.4% m/m to $38.00 |
The pricing shift was fast. Before the release, December hike odds sat near 70%, down from about 95% a few weeks earlier, per CoinDesk. After the release, the odds moved back toward 80%, per Reuters and CME FedWatch. Bloomberg Economics put the chance at 76%, though its team still expects no increase, per EconoTimes. Prediction market Kalshi priced a 73.6% chance of a 4.00%-4.25% target range at the December 9 decision, per EconoTimes. That spread, 73.6% to about 80%, shows a market treating a December hike as the base case, with the next two inflation prints still able to change the call.
How the majors moved
The euro took the hardest hit among the majors. EUR/USD fell 0.67% to $1.11437, its largest daily drop since October 1, and the pair is now on its third straight weekly decline. Sterling fell 0.71% to $1.3355, its largest daily drop since September 23, giving back the rally that followed the Bank of England's first rate hike in over three years on Thursday. The yen weakened 0.47% to 158.43 per dollar.
| Pair / index | Friday close | Day move | Week move |
|---|---|---|---|
| US dollar index | 102.26 | +0.77% | +0.3% |
| EUR/USD | 1.1144 | -0.67% | -0.1% |
| GBP/USD | 1.3355 | -0.71% | -0.3% |
| USD/JPY | 158.43 | +0.47% | yen -0.6% |
Two levels frame the next move. EUR/USD closed 40 pips above its 17-month low of 1.1104 from October 29, the level set the day the European Central Bank held rates and flagged upside inflation risks from energy costs. A break of that low opens ground the pair has not traded since May 2025. The index's 0.77% daily gain is the first move of that size since June 17, and the weekly gain of 0.3% came despite four days of equity-market turmoil. Gold held $4,072.10 in our live snapshot on Saturday evening, and Bitcoin traded at $75,591, down 0.29% on the day, which tells the same story as the currency tape: the dollar, not gold or crypto, absorbed the post-jobs flow.
How the week set up the move
Friday's rally did not come from nowhere. The jobs report landed at the end of a week that had already pushed the Fed, the Bank of England and the Reserve Bank of Australia in the same direction. September payrolls had printed at 29,000 against a 90,000 consensus, a miss that knocked hike bets down. Then September CPI came in hot at 3.7% year on year on October 14, and September PPI followed at 6.3% on October 15, the fastest annual rate since December 2022. The Federal Reserve held its benchmark at 3.75%-4% on October 28 in a 10-2 vote, with Lisa Cook and Beth Hammack dissenting in favor of a hike. The Bank of England raised its rate 25 basis points to 4.00% on November 5, an 8-1 vote, and the Reserve Bank of Australia raised its cash rate 25 basis points to 4.85% on November 3.
Thursday's equity rout added a second engine to the dollar's rise. The S&P 500 fell 4.4% and the Nasdaq Composite fell 5.5%, the Nasdaq's worst single-day fall in 19 months, wiping about $3 trillion from US stocks, per Reuters. Investors feared that Democratic gains in the November 3 midterm elections would bring tighter rules on artificial intelligence and data-center building. The selloff spread to Asia on Friday: in Seoul, the KOSPI slid up to 8.5% before a 20-minute halt kicked in; Tokyo's Nikkei lost 7%. Both closed roughly 6% lower, per EconoTimes, citing the Associated Press and CNA. Reuters reported that the dollar was already higher before the jobs data, lifted by safe-haven demand. US stocks steadied by the open, with the Nasdaq finishing 1.1% higher and the S&P 500 adding 0.3% on Friday, per EconoTimes.
What Fed officials said on Friday
John Williams of the New York Fed said Friday that US growth has stayed strong through repeated shocks, yet inflation sits too high and must come back to 2%. Alberto Musalem, president of the St. Louis Fed, said companies across his Midwestern district keep putting inflation at the top of their worry list, per Reuters. Mary Daly of the San Francisco Fed said further rate rises will probably still be needed, even after the painful tech selloff, per Reuters.
The yen's side of the story ran through Tokyo. Kazuo Ueda, the Bank of Japan's governor, said underlying inflation should stay near the 2% target, while flagging upside risks, per Reuters. Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi plans to fund her main investment programs with money raised from central-bank sales of exchange-traded funds, as the AI-led market rout threatened tax revenue, per Reuters. The yen still lost 0.6% on the week, its largest weekly percentage decline since the week ended September 18.
Traders split over what drove the dollar on Friday, safety or rates, and one desk voice caught the tension. Eugene Epstein of Moneycorp said the dollar faces two pulls at once, safety demand and the rate gap, and the two do not always point the same way, per Reuters. Chris Turner at ING said investors moved into cash without leaving the dollar, per Reuters, quoted by EconoTimes.
What to watch
- November 10 CPI and November 13 PPI: the next two inflation prints carry more weight for the December 9 decision than the jobs report alone.
- December 4 jobs report, due at 8:30 a.m. Eastern: the last payrolls print before the Fed meets.
- December 8-9 FOMC meeting: markets price a hike at about 80% (as of November 6); the decision and the vote split will show whether the October hold was a pause or a pivot point.
- EUR/USD 1.1104: the October 29 low, a 17-month low, sits 40 pips below Friday's close.
- Bank of Japan: whether Takaichi's ETF-proceeds plan or Ueda's upside inflation risks move the yen before the December meeting.
Key points
- October payrolls rose 165,000 vs a 65,000 Reuters consensus; September revised up to 60,000 from 29,000; unemployment 4.1%, down from 4.2%.
- The US dollar index gained 0.77% to 102.26, its largest daily rise since June 17; the week closed up 0.3%.
- EUR/USD fell 0.67% to $1.11437, GBP/USD fell 0.71% to $1.3355, and USD/JPY rose to 158.43.
- December Fed hike odds moved back toward 80% (as of November 6), from about 67% on Thursday, per CME FedWatch via Reuters; Bloomberg Economics put it at 76%.
- Treasury yields climbed after the release: the 10-year reached 4.85%, up 1.6 basis points, while the 2-year reached 4.52%, up 4.1 basis points, per Reuters.
- Fed officials Williams, Musalem and Daly all backed further hikes on Friday; the next jobs report lands December 4 and the Fed meets December 8-9.
MarketRadar take
The October jobs report changed the December question from whether the Fed can hike to whether anything in the next month stops it. A 100,000-job beat, a 31,000 upward revision and a jobless rate back down to 4.1% leave the Fed with a labor market that needs no help and inflation still above target. The dollar's 0.77% jump is the market pricing that combination, and the euro's third straight weekly decline shows the other side of the trade: the European Central Bank held at 2.50% on October 29 while the Fed's next move points up. EUR/USD at 1.1144, 40 pips above its 17-month low, is the pair to watch into the November 10 CPI print. Our gold weekly outlook from Saturday tracked the same jobs beat from the metal's side, and the Nasdaq 100 outlook covered Thursday's $2.9 trillion wipeout that set up Friday's safe-haven bid.
