Nasdaq 100 E-mini futures traded 395.25 points higher at 04:14 ET on Friday, a 1.48% gain, per Reuters. The contract touched 27,080 in the rebound, per InvestingCube, after Thursday's 26,353 low: a 727-point climb, or 2.76%, off the low. S&P 500 E-minis added 0.39% while Dow E-minis fell 0.66%. The split tells the story of the morning: technology is bouncing, the broad market is not.
Thursday set the record the bounce now has to answer. The S&P 500 lost 4.3% on Thursday, wiping $2.9 trillion off its value, while the Nasdaq Composite shed 5.5%, or $2.5 trillion, per Nasdaq.com, the biggest one-day market-value losses ever recorded for both. Reuters called the Nasdaq Composite's fall its worst single-day fall in 19 months, a slide that put the index in correction territory. The S&P 500 ended at 7,353, 5.9% under its peak. The trigger was political: Democrats won the House and Senate in the November 3 midterms, and traders priced a higher chance Congress slows the AI data-centre build-out. Chip names took the worst of it: SanDisk fell 22.2%, and Astera Labs, Lumentum, Micron, Western Digital, AMD, Marvell, Lam Research and Seagate all fell more than 16%, per InvestingCube. The rout crossed the Pacific overnight, where the Nikkei entered a bear market and the KOSPI halted trading.
| Market | Move at 04:14 ET Friday | Read |
|---|---|---|
| Nasdaq 100 E-minis | +395.25 (+1.48%) | Chip-led bounce |
| S&P 500 E-minis | +28.50 (+0.39%) | Mild follow-through |
| Dow E-minis | -342.00 (-0.66%) | No broad recovery |
| VIX | 26.07 | Easing after the sharpest one-day jump in roughly 19 months |
| Nvidia, premarket | +3.6% | After its worst one-day drop since January 2025 |
| AMD, Intel, Broadcom, Micron | +5% to +8.3% | Chip rebound |
The bounce has one number to beat: 28,000. InvestingCube puts resistance there, with a move above it the signal for more gains, and support at 25,000 if the index keeps falling. The contract sits below both its 50-day and 200-day moving averages, and it bounced off the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level. The support and resistance picture is clean: 26,353 held as the low, 27,080 marks the rebound high, and 28,000 stands between the bounce and a claim that the trend has turned.
Why the bounce stays unproven
Jefferies strategist Jane Gibbons told Reuters the selloff was "reactionary, not a fundamental reset". The morning tape fits that reading: the rebound leaders are the same chip names that fell hardest, and the Dow still points down. History leans toward recovery over time: Carson Investment Research data going back to 1950 puts the S&P 500's average six-month gain after midterms at 15%, and Nasdaq data since 2016 shows a 21% average gain in the year after the index enters correction territory. The Nasdaq entered correction in March 2026 and has gained 14% since, per Nasdaq.com. Averages like that say nothing about Friday.
What to watch
- October's US jobs report lands at 18:30 PKT, with traders putting December hike odds above 65%, per CME FedWatch via Reuters, after the Federal Reserve held its benchmark at 3.75%-4% on October 28.
- Whether Nasdaq 100 futures hold above 26,353 or retest Thursday's low.
- 28,000 resistance: a close above it changes the read on the bounce.
- VIX and any lawmaker statement on data-centre rules: a second day above 26 keeps the rebound fragile.
Key points
- Nasdaq 100 E-minis rose 1.48% at 04:14 ET Friday; futures touched 27,080 after Thursday's 26,353 low, up 727 points, or 2.76%.
- S&P 500 lost 4.3%, wiping $2.9 trillion off its value, and the Nasdaq Composite shed 5.5%, or $2.5 trillion, the biggest one-day market-value losses ever recorded.
- Nasdaq Composite posted its worst single-day fall in 19 months and sits in correction territory, while the S&P 500 finished 5.9% below its record high.
- Nvidia rose 3.6% before the open, after its worst one-day drop since January 2025; AMD, Intel, Broadcom and Micron rose 5% to 8.3%.
- Resistance sits at 28,000 and support at 25,000, per InvestingCube, with the index below its 50-day and 200-day moving averages.
- VIX eased to 26.07 after the sharpest one-day jump in roughly 19 months; Dow E-minis fell 0.66%.
MarketRadar take
The rebound is real but narrow: chips are bouncing while the Dow still falls, and 727 points recovers only a fraction of a week that erased trillions. Holding 26,353 keeps the bounce alive, and a move through 28,000 would turn it into a reversal. Until the jobs report lands at 18:30 PKT, the tape reads as relief, not repair.
