"A life of its own." That was how SlateStone Wealth strategist Ken Polcari described the AI trade to Reuters on Monday, arguing Congress can regulate it but not stop it. The tape backed him. The Dow Jones Industrial Average jumped 1,104.02 points, or 2.15%, to 52,389.75. The S&P 500 rose 2.35% to 7,549.94, its best day since April 8, per Reuters, and the Nasdaq Composite added 2.74% to 25,253.14, its best since July 30. All 11 S&P 500 sectors finished higher, with industrials and consumer discretionary each up more than 3%.

Two forces did the lifting. Crude slid after President Donald Trump played down the chance of renewed strikes on Iran, and cheaper oil took pressure off the inflation story. West Texas Intermediate settled at $86.40, down 4.9% on the day in MarketRadar's snapshot. The second force was a rethink of last week's selling: Morgan Stanley and UBS both called the AI rout overdone, per Reuters, judging that a Democratic Congress was unlikely to choke off data-center building with regulation.

Six sessions, one reversal

  • Tuesday, November 3: Democrats swept both chambers of Congress in the midterms, and traders priced tighter AI regulation.
  • Wednesday, November 4: the Dow jumped 1,569 points in the first rally after the vote.
  • Thursday, November 5: the AI trade cracked, with the S&P 500 down 4.36% for its worst day since April 2025, the Nasdaq off 5.52% in its steepest drop in 19 months, and the Dow shedding 1,833 points. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index lost more than 12% and Nvidia gave up more than 9%, leaving the Nasdaq more than 10% below its October 6 record.
  • Friday, November 6: chips bounced and October payrolls printed 165,000 against 65,000 expected. The close split three ways: the S&P 500 up 0.31% to 7,376.86, the Nasdaq up 1.09% to 24,579.42, the Dow down 0.46% to 51,285.73. The jobs beat lifted December hike pricing and sent the dollar index up 0.77% to 102.26.
  • Sunday, November 8: Nvidia's board opened an independent investigation into reports that chief executive Jensen Huang had been targeted by a foreign intelligence effort. Huang confirmed he would stay as chief executive.
  • Monday, November 9: the rebound. The S&P 500 added 173.08 points, the Nasdaq 673.71, the Dow 1,104.02. Advancing issues outnumbered decliners 4.46-to-1 on the NYSE and 3.56-to-1 on the Nasdaq, per Reuters.

The split in the tape

The rally had one holdout, and it was the market's biggest stock. Nvidia fell 4.27% to $178.67, the only decliner among the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index's 30 names, per Reuters. The index itself rose 6.85% to 10,033.88. Advanced Micro Devices jumped 13.26%, Broadcom gained 8.78%, Applied Materials rallied 11.37% and Lam Research surged 10.41%, per TradingKey. Bernstein flagged Huang as a key-person risk, pointing to his roughly 60 direct reports and his grip on company strategy. The board's statement cut the other way: it said the reports raised no evidence that state secrets or company data had leaked, and it confirmed Huang stays as chief executive. The shares had fallen about 6% intraday to their lowest since March 31, per Reuters.

What the math says

Monday's gain repaired just over half of Thursday's damage in one session. The S&P 500's 173.08-point rise recovered 51.6% of the 335.24 points it lost on Thursday, and with Friday's 23.13-point gain the two-session recovery stands at 196.21 points, or 58.5% of the drop. The Nasdaq did better: Friday and Monday together recovered 938.14 of the 1,420.6 points lost on Thursday, 66.0%. The close also settled the 7,450 line Friday's S&P 500 post flagged as the line in the sand: the index finished 99.94 points above it, a 1.34% cushion, after closing below it on Thursday. The next marker sits 250.06 points higher at 7,800, the top of the range it has held for three months, and the 7,844 record high stands 294.06 points above Monday's close, 3.75% away. The index still sits 31.62 points below the 7,581.56 close of October 30, 0.42% under it, so Monday's rebound has not yet erased the prior week's loss.

What to watch

  • Tuesday, November 10: October CPI at 8:30 a.m. Eastern, the first of two inflation prints before the December 8-9 Fed meeting, with PPI due Friday. December hike pricing stood at 78% as of November 8, per FXEmpire.
  • Tuesday morning: Anthropic's Nasdaq IPO roadshow opens, with the listing expected to bring in $75 billion to $100 billion, per an IFR report cited by TradingKey.
  • Tuesday, November 17: Nvidia reports earnings, the first read on the chipmaker since the board probe.
  • Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin signaled further rate hikes on Monday, per TradingKey, keeping the rate path in focus while the rebound runs.

Key points

  • The Dow Jones jumped 1,104.02 points (2.15%) to 52,389.75 on Monday, November 9; the S&P 500 rose 2.35% to 7,549.94 and the Nasdaq Composite gained 2.74% to 25,253.14.
  • All 11 S&P 500 sectors rose, with industrials and consumer discretionary each up more than 3%; advancing issues beat decliners 4.46-to-1 on the NYSE.
  • Nvidia fell 4.27% to $178.67, the only decliner in the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index, after its board opened an independent investigation; the index still rose 6.85% to 10,033.88.
  • The S&P 500 reclaimed 7,450, closing 99.94 points above it, and recovered 58.5% of Thursday's 335.24-point drop across Friday and Monday.
  • October CPI lands Tuesday, November 10, at 8:30 a.m. Eastern; Nvidia reports earnings on November 17.

MarketRadar take

Dip buyers stepped in where the selling looked political rather than fundamental, and breadth of 4.46-to-1 on the NYSE says the buying spread past chips. Nvidia is the exception that keeps the tape honest: the market's second-most valuable company fell while 29 of its 30 chip peers rose, and the key-person question around Huang has no quick answer. The 7,450 reclaim turns the next test to 7,800, while Tuesday's CPI decides whether the rate story lets the rally run. The tape reads bullish for indices near term, with Nvidia as the watch item.