7,376.86. That is where the S&P 500 stopped on Friday, November 6, up 23.13 points, or 0.31%, after the worst day for the index since April 2025. The number looks like a recovery. The math behind it says the rebound is still on trial.
The Nasdaq Composite did the heavy lifting, gaining 264.43 points, or 1.09%, to 24,579.42, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average went the other way, falling 237.33 points, or 0.46%, to 51,285.73, per the Associated Press closing tally carried by Sharecast. Chip stocks led the bounce: the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index rose 4.2% on Friday, with Nvidia up 2.8% and Advanced Micro Devices up 11%, Reuters reported. For the week, the damage stayed intact. The S&P 500 lost 2.7%, its worst week since the April 2025 tariff shock, the Nasdaq fell 3.4% for a fourth straight weekly decline, and the Dow slipped 0.9%. Friday's bounce arrived with a jobs report that cut both ways: October payrolls grew by 165,000, 2.5 times the 65,000 economists expected in a Reuters poll, and traders priced a December Federal Reserve rate hike at about 80% after the release, up from about 70% before it, per Reuters and CME FedWatch.
The week, day by day
- Tuesday, November 3: Democrats won both chambers of Congress in the midterm elections.
- Wednesday, November 4: the Dow jumped 1,569 points in the first rally after the vote.
- Thursday, November 5: the AI trade broke. The S&P 500 fell 4.36%, its worst day since April 2025, the Nasdaq dropped 5.52%, its steepest fall in 19 months and more than 10% below its October 6 record, and the Dow lost 1,833 points. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index dropped over 12% while Nvidia fell more than 9%, per FXEmpire.
- Friday, November 6: chips bounced, the jobs report printed 165,000, and the close split three ways: S&P 500 up 0.31%, Nasdaq up 1.09%, Dow down 0.46%.
Thursday's 335.24-point S&P 500 drop left Friday's 23.13-point gain looking thin: the bounce recovered only 6.9% of the prior session's loss. The Nasdaq did better, clawing back 18.6% of its 1,420.6-point Thursday slide. The week ended with the S&P 500 204.7 points below the prior Friday's close of 7,581.56.
How the AI trade cracked
The sell-off had two parents: doubt about AI spending and politics. Traders spent Thursday repricing the data-center build-out after weeks of questions about how the spending gets financed and how fast it pays back, and the midterm result gave that doubt a second leg: a Democratic sweep in Congress raised expectations of tighter AI regulation and slower data-center development, Sharecast reported. The bond market sided with the doubters on rates: the two-year Treasury yield rose to 4.528% from 4.475% after the jobs report, per IG. Axel Rudolph, the firm's chief technical analyst, said yields were climbing off a two-month low because the jobs report argued for rates staying higher for longer. The selling spread past chips. The S&P 500 energy index headed for a weekly drop of more than 11%, Reuters said on Friday morning, and the information technology index lost more than 6% for the week, per FXEmpire. Services data stayed firm: October services PMI printed 54.5, a touch below September's 54.9, with the prices index at 73, per FXEmpire. Keith Lerner, Truist's chief investment officer, told Reuters that AI "remains the dominant theme" of the bull market, per the Economic Times. Adam Turnquist, chief cross-asset strategist at LPL Financial, called the sell-off an overreaction to the midterm results and said AI has faced this kind of doubt before and come through it each time, per Reuters. AJ Bell's Dan Coatsworth called it a "brutal week," per Sharecast.
The levels that decide Monday
FXEmpire's chart read puts the line in the sand at 7,450, the level the index closed below on Thursday after touching 7,350 intraday. A close back above 7,450 opens the way to 7,800, the top of a three-month range, while failure there leaves the 200-day moving average at 7,325 and the 50-week average at 7,240 as the next floors. The index sits about 6% below its record high of 7,844 and is still 7.8% higher for 2026, per the Associated Press.
| Level | Price | Gap from Friday close 7,376.86 |
|---|---|---|
| Reclaim / resistance | 7,450 | +73.14 points, +0.99% |
| 200-day moving average | 7,325 | -51.86 points, -0.70% |
| 50-week moving average | 7,240 | -136.86 points, -1.86% |
| Range top | 7,800 | +423.14 points, +5.74% |
| Record high | 7,844 | +467.14 points, +6.33% |
The semiconductor index sits on its own line. It sits more than 25% below its October peak and bounced off a trend line near 9,000 on Friday, per FXEmpire. The information technology index is moving toward support at 6,000 to 6,100, set by October 2025 highs, per FXEmpire.
Why it matters
The split close is the story. One report put October job growth at 165,000, against 65,000 expected, and gave the Federal Reserve room to raise rates again in December, which is why the dollar index jumped 0.77% to 102.26 on Friday, its biggest daily gain since June 17, and why the Dow fell while chips rose. Tuesday's October CPI, the last inflation reading before the December 8-9 meeting, decides whether the 80% hike pricing holds. The Nasdaq's slide into correction territory is covered in Friday's Nasdaq outlook, and the chip rebound is tracked in the Nasdaq stocks recap.
What to watch
- Tuesday, November 10: October CPI at 8:30 a.m. Eastern, the last inflation print before the December 8-9 Fed meeting.
- Monday's open: a close above 7,450 turns the bounce into a reclaim; a close below 7,325 opens the 200-day average as the next test.
- The semiconductor index at its 9,000 trend line: a second day above it steadies the AI trade; a break under it revives Thursday's selling.
Key points
- The S&P 500 closed Friday at 7,376.86, up 23.13 points (0.31%), after falling 4.36% on Thursday, its worst day since April 2025.
- The Nasdaq gained 1.09% to 24,579.42 on Friday but fell 3.4% for the week, its fourth straight weekly decline; the Dow slipped 0.46% to 51,285.73.
- October payrolls rose 165,000, against 65,000 expected, with September revised up to 60,000 from 29,000; unemployment fell to 4.1% from 4.2%.
- December Fed hike pricing stood at about 80% after the jobs report (as of November 6), up from about 70% before it.
- The 7,450 level decides the next move: above it, 7,800 comes into view; below 7,325, the 200-day average gives way to a deeper correction.
MarketRadar take
The bounce is real but small: 23.13 points against a 335.24-point Thursday drop is a 6.9% retracement, not a reversal, and the Nasdaq's 18.6% retracement is only a little stronger. The jobs report helps the economy's case and hurts the rate case at the same time, which is why the index needs 7,450 before the 7,800 range top is a live conversation. Until Tuesday's CPI lands, the tape reads neutral.
