5.52%. That was the Nasdaq Composite's fall on Thursday, November 5, its steepest slide since the April 2025 tariff rout, and it pushed VOO, Vanguard's S&P 500 tracker, roughly 6% under its October high. Friday brought a bounce: the S&P 500 rose 0.82% to 7,414 and the Nasdaq added 1.51% to 24,682 at 17:14 UTC, after Nasdaq 100 futures bounced 1.48% pre-open. The Nasdaq still sits 10.6% below its October 6 record near 27,600. One fund, two numbers, per the Motley Fool analysis on Nasdaq.com.
The 6% number
Thursday erased the post-election rally. The Nasdaq Composite fell 5.52% to 24,315 and closed 11.9% below its October 6 record, into correction territory. The S&P 500 dropped 4.36% to 7,353.73, its heaviest single-day loss since April 2025, and the Dow lost 1,833 points to 51,523.06. Nvidia fell 9.3% and AMD 17%, while the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index fell about 12%, per Reuters.
Democrats won the House and Senate in the November 3 midterms, flipping at least 40 House seats and at least seven Senate seats, per Reuters, and traders priced a higher chance Congress slows the AI build-out. The rout crossed the Pacific overnight, where the Nikkei entered a bear market and the KOSPI halted trading.
The 10% number
Earnings are the counterweight, and the numbers are large. FactSet puts S&P 500 third-quarter earnings growth at a blended 30.2% year over year, with 82% beating earnings estimates and 70% beating revenue estimates. Revenue growth runs at 13.4% and the net margin at 14.9%. Nvidia and Micron account for 34% of the quarter's earnings growth, per a Wall Street Journal analysis of FactSet data, and the top 10 companies account for about two-thirds. Headwinds: September CPI at 3.7%, Brent crude above $100 a barrel, per the Motley Fool piece, and the 10-year yield at 5.047%. Earnings have offset those headwinds so far.
The fear gauge's record
Wall Street's fear gauge, the VIX, surged 11.6 points to 28.2 on Thursday, from 16.6, its largest one-day move since April 2025, per Bespoke data cited by CNBC. Bespoke counted 19 cases since 1990 of the VIX rising at least five points from below 20: the median S&P 500 return was 4.2% three months later and 4.8% six months later, with gains 68% and 79% of the time. Paul Hickey of Bespoke likened the spikes to summer thunderstorms, per CNBC.
Puts made up 670,000 of 900,000 options on the VanEck Semiconductor ETF, per SpotGamma data cited by CNBC.
Jobs day and the Fed
Friday's bounce came with a jobs report that rewrote the recent labour picture. US employers added 165,000 jobs in October, against a 56,000 consensus, and the unemployment rate edged down to 4.1% from 4.2%, per the Bureau of Labor Statistics. September was revised to 60,000 from 29,000 and August to 186,000 from 133,000, and hourly earnings rose 0.4% to $38.00, up 3.1% on the year.
The Fed held its benchmark at 3.75% to 4% on October 28, in a 10-2 vote, with two dissents in favour of a hike. December hike odds stood at 83% as of October 29, per CME FedWatch. The dollar rallied: the euro fell 0.71% to 1.1156, sterling 0.77% to 1.3373.
The levels that frame the bounce
| Level | S&P 500 | Nasdaq Composite |
|---|---|---|
| Thursday's low | 7,354 | 24,315 |
| Friday, 17:14 UTC | 7,414 | 24,682 |
| October peak / record | 7,815 | 27,600 |
Thursday's low sits 0.8% under Friday's S&P 500 and 1.5% under the Nasdaq, and the October peak sits 5.4% and 11.8% above them.
What to watch
- October CPI lands November 10, the next inflation print the Fed sees before its December 8-9 meeting.
- The November jobs report follows on December 4.
- Whether the VIX holds below 30 or pushes back above it after Thursday's 28.2 close.
Key points
- The Nasdaq fell 5.52% to 24,315 on Thursday, its steepest slide since April 2025, closing 11.9% below its October 6 record.
- VOO sits roughly 6% under its October high but is up about 10% over the past year.
- The VIX jumped 11.6 points to 28.2; Bespoke's history shows a median S&P 500 gain of 4.2% three months after such spikes.
- October jobs rose 165,000 against a 56,000 consensus and unemployment fell to 4.1%.
MarketRadar take
The 10% number has the stronger case, but not by much. Earnings growth of 30.2% absorbs a 6% pullback, and the VIX history says spikes like Thursday's have usually faded within months. The weak spot is concentration: a third of the earnings growth comes from two chip names. With the Fed still pointed toward a December hike, one green Friday is a bounce, not an all-clear.
