The euro dropped to 1.1104 against the dollar on Thursday, October 29, its lowest print since May 2025. FXStreet put the pair near 1.1120 later in the session, down 0.28% on the day, while Reuters put it down 0.4% at $1.1107.
Frankfurt supplied the first half of the move. The European Central Bank left policy rates untouched: deposit facility 2.50%, main refinancing operations 2.65%, marginal lending 2.90%.
The hold matched forecasts.
Its statement flagged surging energy prices as an upside risk to inflation and a downside risk to growth, with underlying inflation broadly stable, wages yet to respond much to the energy shock, no rate path pre-committed, and the Council repeating its data-dependent line.
The ECB confirmed an early exit for President Christine Lagarde: she leaves on February 7, 2027. At the press conference, she described a Council debate over a rise ending in a unanimous hold, citing uncertainty and stable underlying inflation. She said the coming six weeks would deliver much more information before December, and signalled the path of rates was clear.
Context: the ECB has raised twice in 2026, in June and in September, and euro-area inflation reached 3.8% in September, up from 3.2% in August. Energy prices rose 18.9% on the year.
Washington supplied the second half of the move. US data at 17:30 PKT showed third-quarter GDP up 3.4% annualized, above the 3.2% consensus and up from 2.2% in the second quarter. September headline PCE rose 3.6% on the year, up from 3.4% in August, and 0.5% on the month. Core PCE rose 3.1% on the year, up from 3.0%, and 0.3% on the month, matching consensus. Weekly jobless claims fell to 194,000, below the 199,000 forecast.
The data landed a day after the Federal Reserve kept its benchmark at 3.75%-4% on October 28 (10-2 vote). Lisa Cook and Beth Hammack dissented, preferring a quarter-point rise. CME FedWatch pricing cited by FXStreet put a December hike at 83% after Thursday's releases. That pricing, plus a steady ECB, left the dollar firmer on both sides of the pair.
Reuters put the euro at an 18-month low against the pound, at 83.48 pence. The 10-year German Bund yield slipped 4 basis points to 3.34%, and the STOXX 600 rose about 1%. eToro strategist Lale Akoner told Reuters the timing was awkward, with inflation elevated and French debt under strain, yet the calm first reaction pointed to continuity.
Why it matters
Thursday stacked two central-bank weeks into one session: the Fed held on Wednesday, the ECB held on Thursday, and the next decision round for both lands in December. Between now and then come fresh inflation and jobs data, plus a named ECB succession question. The euro's break to a 17-month low gives that wait a clear reference point.
What to watch
- The December ECB meeting, the first since Lagarde's exit announcement, and any successor signal before February 7, 2027.
- The December 8-9 FOMC meeting, with December hike pricing at 83% (CME FedWatch via FXStreet, October 29).
- The next euro-area inflation print, after September's 3.8% reading and the ECB's energy warning.
- French government bond yields, flagged by Commerzbank as a condition for the ECB's December path.
Key points
- The ECB held all three policy rates on October 29 (deposit 2.50%).
- EUR/USD fell to 1.1104, its lowest since May 2025; against the pound it hit an 18-month low at 83.48 pence.
- Lagarde leaves on February 7, 2027; the Council's hold decision was unanimous.
- US Q3 GDP grew 3.4% annualized; headline PCE printed 3.6% on the year, core PCE 3.1%.
- December Fed hike pricing: 83% (CME FedWatch via FXStreet, after the US data).
MarketRadar take
The levels below frame the next sessions. FXStreet's technical read puts EUR/USD under its 100-period average at 1.1196 and its 200-period average at 1.1293, with a 14-period relative strength reading near 36.
| EUR/USD level | Value | Distance from the 1.1104 low |
|---|---|---|
| Session low, October 29 | 1.1104 | — |
| Support | 1.1105 | 1 pip above the low |
| Support | 1.1050 | 54 pips below the low |
| Resistance, 100-period average | 1.1196 | 92 pips above the low |
| Resistance, trend line | 1.1254 | 150 pips above the low |
| Resistance, 200-period average | 1.1293 | 189 pips above the low |
The low sits 1 pip under the 1.1105 line, so that line is the first thing to watch on any retest. A climb back above 1.1196 would be the first sign of a shift in the near-term bias. Until then, the facts point one way: a steady ECB, a departing president, and US data keeping December Fed tightening priced in.
