The dollar started Monday soft and finished it firmer. Reuters had the dollar index at 101.64 in early trading. The euro was up 0.16% at $1.122. Sterling was 0.1% stronger at $1.3385. By 13:42 UTC, FXStreet put the index at 101.98, a gain of 0.24% for the session. MarketRadar's 15:39 UTC snapshot confirmed the shift: euro 1.1181 (-0.36%), sterling 1.3346 (-0.43%), yen 157.57 (+0.69%).
102 is the line. Nothing else this week matters as much.
FXEmpire's Monday read had the index resting just above 101.60 support. It had drifted down from a 102.92 top. Resistance sits at 102.00, then 102.43. Its RSI reading of 46 is neutral. A close above 102.00 favours buyers; a slip under 101.60 favours sellers. Neither happened on Monday. The session was positioning, not a breakout.
The calendar rarely lines up this tightly. Five major central banks decide between Wednesday and Friday: the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, the Bank of Canada and the Federal Reserve all on Wednesday, the European Central Bank on Thursday, and the Bank of Japan on Friday. Analysts at MUFG expect New Zealand and Canada to raise rates by 25 basis points each, with the Fed, the ECB and the Bank of Japan all standing pat. A Reuters poll cited by FXEmpire found 94 of 100 economists expecting the Fed to hold on Wednesday. Governor Christopher Waller has said further hikes are likely needed but need not come at consecutive meetings.
December is where the real argument lives. FXStreet put pricing for another Fed hike in December at around 79% on CME FedWatch. That is close to MarketRadar's standing read of 80% as of October 23. The Fed raised its target range by 25 basis points in September to 3.75%-4.00%. September's dots centred on 4.1% for year-end 2026 and again for year-end 2027. MUFG's caution runs the other way: with the year's final FOMC meeting not until December 9 and financial conditions tightening, December pricing could yet ease if Warsh sounds less committed to the dots than traders expect.
Bond and oil markets pulled in opposite directions on Monday. Reuters put the 10-year Treasury yield at 4.974% and the 30-year at 5.299%. Both are near one-month lows after a safe-haven rally. FXStreet, later in the day, had the 10-year steadier at around 4.98% and read that stabilisation as support for the dollar. Brent crude eased more than 1% to around $115 a barrel after a six-month high last week.
Europe supplied one side story. Moody's kept France at Aa3 with a negative outlook on Friday, sparing Paris a downgrade during a week of unrest, and the euro's early rise reflected that relief.
| Pair | Snapshot 15:39 UTC | Day change | Morning Reuters level |
|---|---|---|---|
| EUR/USD | 1.1181 | -0.36% | 1.1220 |
| GBP/USD | 1.3346 | -0.43% | 1.3385 |
| USD/JPY | 157.57 | +0.69% | 156.92 |
| Level in focus | Price |
|---|---|
| DXY resistance | 102.00, then 102.43 |
| DXY support | 101.60, then 100.87 |
Why it matters
This is a guidance week more than a decision week. Pepperstone's Chris Weston made the point in a note quoted by Reuters: the decisions themselves may be largely discounted, and what moves short-term rates is how policymakers shape expectations for the meetings after this one. Three of the five banks are expected to do nothing, so each statement gets read for December. For the dollar, the split matters too: if Canada and New Zealand hike while the Fed holds, rate gaps narrow against the greenback. If Warsh leans hawkish on December, that headwind fades.
What to watch
- Wednesday: RBNZ, Bank of Canada and Fed decisions, plus Warsh's press conference and the vote split.
- Thursday: US third-quarter GDP and PCE inflation, followed by the ECB decision.
- Friday: Bank of Japan decision, closing the week.
- Whether the dollar index closes above 102.00 or back below 101.60.
Key points
- Dollar index at 101.98, up 0.24%, at 13:42 UTC, after a 101.64 early reading from Reuters.
- Five banks decide this week: RBNZ, Bank of Canada and Fed on Wednesday, ECB on Thursday, Bank of Japan on Friday.
- MUFG expects 25-basis-point hikes from New Zealand and Canada, holds from the rest.
- 94 of 100 economists expect a Fed hold Wednesday; December-hike pricing sits near 79-80%.
- 10-year yield near 4.98%; Brent eased more than 1% to around $115 after a six-month high.
MarketRadar take
The balance into Wednesday leans firmer for the dollar, but it is a lean, not a trend. The index spent Monday inside FXEmpire's 101.60-102.00 range, and yields sit near one-month lows. Until Warsh or Thursday's PCE print moves December pricing, the range is the honest description.
