Brent crude slipped under $90 a barrel on Tuesday, November 10, the first time under that mark since August. The global benchmark touched $89.70 in early European trading, per OilPrice.com, then traded at $90.32 by 1:33 p.m. UAE time, per The National. West Texas Intermediate fell 2.27% to $84.77 over the same stretch.
Tuesday's drop extended a slide that gathered speed on Monday, when Brent fell nearly 6% in the session, per News18. Last week the benchmark lost 17%, the steepest weekly fall since the COVID volatility of 2020, per OilPrice.com. Brent now sits about 25% under its late-October peak above $117, a reversal from almost $130 during the March-April strikes, per BusinessToday.
The trigger was Washington. Trump spoke to reporters on Monday after talks with Qatar's prime minister at the White House, saying further strikes on Iran were not needed and the war could be "ending fairly soon", per The National. Trump added that Iran's military was "effectively over", per BusinessToday, though he also kept Washington "locked and loaded", per News18, a signal that military options have not been fully ruled out. Qatar is mediating talks between Washington and Tehran, and negotiations continue, with officials seeing little chance of fresh escalation while diplomacy runs, per News18.
Saxo Bank commodity strategist Ole Hansen said crude flows are close to pre-war levels, while liquefied natural gas and refined products stay tight, holding prices up, especially for diesel, per OilPrice.com. Ewa Manthey and Warren Patterson at ING read the move as the market unwinding the geopolitical premium built up during the conflict, per BusinessToday. Not everyone buys the peace trade: FGE chairman Fereidun Fesharaki doubts a deal closes soon, pointing to gaps over nuclear material and who controls the Strait of Hormuz, per BusinessToday.
The oil slide reached the debt of producers that live on crude revenue. Angola's eurobonds dropped the most among oil exporters' debt: seven of its dollar notes sat among the day's weakest emerging-market performers, per Bloomberg. Angola led the debt slide for oil exporters in frontier and emerging markets after Brent broke under $90, per Bloomberg.
Why it matters
Cheaper crude feeds straight into the inflation numbers due today. US gasoline also slipped under $4 a gallon, a first since July, per News18. October CPI lands at 8:30 a.m. Eastern, the first inflation print before the Federal Reserve's December 8-9 meeting, and December hike odds stood near 78% as of November 8. Stocks read the oil drop as relief: the Dow closed up 2.15% at 52,390 on Monday, the S&P 500 rose 2.35% to 7,550 and the Nasdaq gained 2.74% to 25,253, per MarketRadar's market snapshot. The same session that punished oil producers rewarded the rebound in US stocks, and the WTI selloff last week set up Tuesday's break.
Two offsets keep the move from reading as a clean all-clear. The US naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz stays in place, and IG chief technical analyst Axel Rudolph warned the market still faces a supply risk if fighting resumes or shipping through the chokepoint is disrupted, per The National. Houthi attacks on Saudi energy infrastructure also continue: the East-West pipeline was hit near Medina on Monday, starting a limited fire that was extinguished, per the Saudi Press Agency cited by News18.
What to watch
- October CPI at 8:30 a.m. Eastern today, ahead of the Fed's December 8-9 meeting.
- The EIA releases its monthly outlook on Tuesday, OPEC's report lands on Wednesday and the IEA's assessment follows on Friday, per News18.
- Hormuz flows averaged 7.82 million barrels a day during the week ending November 8, about 46% of the 17.14 million prewar level, per Kpler data cited by The National. Bahri, the Saudi shipping company, said on Tuesday it resumed sending tankers through the strait with US military coordination, per News18.
- US-mediated Ukraine-Russia talks in Abu Dhabi, where more senior diplomats joined than in earlier rounds, per News18. Any easing of sanctions on Russia, a major producer, would add downward pressure on crude.
- Whether Brent holds the $88-$90 zone into the close, and whether Angola's bond slide spreads to other oil-exporting borrowers.
| Level | Price | Note |
|---|---|---|
| Support | $88-$90 | Immediate zone, per BusinessToday |
| Trigger | $88.36 | A daily close below it opens $80.38, per BusinessToday |
| Support | $80.38 | Next level if $88.36 breaks, per BusinessToday |
| Resistance | $93.96 | First reclaim level, per BusinessToday |
| Resistance | $101.18 | Second reclaim level, per BusinessToday |
| RSI (14-day) | 33.43 | Near oversold, per BusinessToday |
Key points
- Brent touched $89.70 on Tuesday, the first sub-$90 print since August; WTI fell 2.27% to $84.77.
- Monday brought a drop of nearly 6%; last week Brent lost 17%, the steepest weekly fall since 2020, and the benchmark sits about 25% under its late-October peak above $117.
- Angola's eurobonds led the debt slide: seven dollar notes ranked among the weakest emerging-market performers on Tuesday, per Bloomberg.
- Trump ruled out further strikes on Iran and said the war could be "ending fairly soon"; Qatar is mediating, though Washington stayed "locked and loaded".
- US gasoline slipped under $4 a gallon, a first since July.
- October CPI prints at 8:30 a.m. Eastern; EIA, OPEC and IEA reports follow through Friday.
MarketRadar take
Brent under $90 changes the near-term picture: the premium built up since March is unwinding in days, not weeks, and the $88-$90 zone is now the line that decides whether the slide pauses or runs on. A daily close under $88.36 opens $80.38 on the technical read, while $93.96 is the first level a recovery must reclaim. The counterweight is real: the Hormuz blockade stays in place, Houthi attacks on Saudi infrastructure continue, and Fesharaki's doubts about a quick peace deal argue the premium may not vanish in a straight line. For the Fed, cheaper oil lands the day CPI prints, with December hike odds near 78% as of November 8. October CPI and the December 8-9 meeting now carry more weight than the oil chart alone.
