"Markets are assessing the impact of the midterm elections to Donald Trump's next steps with the Iran war, pricing in more likelihood for the war to end," said June Goh, senior oil analyst at Sparta Commodities, per Reuters. That explains crude's fall on November 5, hours after the Democrats took both chambers of Congress. The WTI crude oil price gave the quote a number in early Asian trade: $86.98 a barrel, down 1.29%, and a fourth straight daily decline.

The zone under test is $86.80 to $87.00. It held into the European morning, with the MarketRadar snapshot showing WTI at $87.20, down 0.99%, at 06:13 UTC.

Four days that broke the oil rally

Tuesday, November 3. Trump told the Financial Times that the United States had no immediate plans to strike Iran, per Reuters. The remark came one day after Iran diplomacy hopes had already cut Brent to $105.60.

Wednesday, November 4. Democrats won the House and the Senate. Vice President JD Vance posted that voter dissatisfaction over the war had contributed to the defeat, and Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer pledged to end the war soon, per the Economic Times. Trump acknowledged the war had played a role in his party's defeat. Brent settled down $8.98, or 8.7%, at $94.62 a barrel and WTI down $7.97, or 8.3%, at $88.12, both at their lowest closes since August 31, per Reuters. Equities read the result the other way: the Dow closed up 1,569 points the same day.

Thursday, November 5. Brent traded at $93.65, down 1.03%, at 0211 GMT per Reuters, while the Economic Times put Brent at $93.51, down $1.05, and WTI below $87, down 1.35%. Reuters counted the session as the fourth consecutive decline for both benchmarks.

The other side of the trade. A senior Iranian official told Reuters on Tuesday that Tehran and Washington remain far from a deal, and Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei said in a written statement that US hostility would persist regardless of which party held power in Washington. Qatar stepped up mediation to avert a renewed escalation, per Reuters.

Why the $87 zone decides the next move

ForexLive flags the $86.80 to $87.00 region as a confluence: two long-run trend lines meet there, and the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement of the July to September rally sits at $86.90. Sellers already pushed through the rising line that held the summer lows. A firm daily close below it opens the 61.8% retracement at $82.21, then the $80 mark. Buyers need a break above the $88.00 to $88.75 swing region first, then $95, to start repairing the chart.

Measured from Thursday's $86.98 print, the math is tight both ways. A slide to $82.21 is $4.77, or 5.5%, lower, and a run to $80 is 8.0% lower. Reclaiming $88.75 needs a $1.77 rise, or 2.0%, while $95 needs $8.02, or 9.2%.

JPMorgan estimates the market returned to a surplus of 1.1 million barrels per day in September, widening to 1.4 million in October, near last year's 1.3 million average, per Reuters. Against that, US crude stocks fell 865,000 barrels to 409.8 million in the week ended October 30, per the EIA, against an expected 877,000-barrel build in a Reuters poll. Gulf exports averaged 17.1 million barrels per day in October, per Vortexa, down from 18.9 million in September. Goldman Sachs raised its December Brent forecast to $105 a barrel from $90 and its WTI forecast to $94 from $81, per the Economic Times, with Brent at $140 in 2027, averaging around $130, if Gulf output stays 3.5 million barrels per day below its 2025 average.

On the bull side of the argument, "The Democratic control of Congress could also tighten US military spending in the Middle East and further heighten the possibility of a peace deal sooner than later," said Dennis Kissler, senior vice president of trading at BOK Financial, per Reuters.

What to watch

  • Whether WTI closes Thursday below the $86.80 to $87.00 zone or back above the $88.00 to $88.75 swing region.
  • Any statement from Washington or Tehran on talks, and any result from Qatar's mediation efforts.

Key points

  • WTI crude traded at $86.98 on November 5, down 1.29%, its fourth straight down day; Brent traded at $93.65, down 1.03%.
  • Wednesday's settles were Brent at $94.62, down 8.7%, and WTI at $88.12, down 8.3%, both the lowest since August 31.
  • WTI is testing $86.80 to $87.00 support, where two long-run trend lines meet and the 50% Fibonacci retracement sits at $86.90.
  • A daily close below the zone opens $82.21, then $80; reclaiming $88.75, then $95, would repair the chart.
  • JPMorgan puts the market surplus at 1.4 million barrels per day in October; Goldman Sachs raised its December Brent forecast to $105 from $90.

MarketRadar take

Sellers hold the near-term edge while WTI trades below the $88.00 to $88.75 swing region, and the $86.80 to $87.00 zone decides whether the midterm rout extends toward $82.21 or stalls into a range. The bear case has the election and a widening surplus behind it; the bull case has a tighter US stock draw and Goldman's higher December forecasts. With Tehran and Washington still far from a deal per Reuters, one escalation headline is the risk to the bear case, so the daily close at $87 matters more than any intraday print below it.