Monday took $7.85 off Brent crude. The global benchmark changed hands at $105.60 a barrel in US trade on November 2, a fall of nearly 7%, while the US grade WTI gave up $7.20 to reach $96.92.
US hours pushed both lower again: WTI's $95.15 low was its weakest since October 15, and Brent slipped to about $103.30 late, 9% under the prior close.
Behind the selling sat a document taking shape in Doha. Tehran's negotiators departed the Qatari-mediated discussions, leaving a draft proposal in circulation and a further session on the table, according to a person familiar with the discussions cited by Reuters. Over the weekend, Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi had described the discussions as continuing and advancing, adding that his government stood ready for fighting and for negotiation alike. President Masoud Pezeshkian said his government had received defined powers from the Supreme Leader for the negotiation track and that dialogue would be Tehran's approach, according to state media accounts. From Washington, the weekend brought a matching message: Marco Rubio, the US secretary of state, said no fresh strike decision had been taken and that President Donald Trump favoured a negotiated outcome, and Trump told Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu by phone that the talks deserved more time, declining Netanyahu's push for strikes to restart right after Tuesday's US midterms. Araqchi's camp says its text could restore Hormuz transits within two days once Washington accepts its terms, which span a halt to the naval blockade of Iranian ports, removal of oil sanctions, and an end to fighting across the region, with no direct US-Iran channel involved.
October explains why a single day's diplomacy talk moved prices so far. Brent had touched $118 during the month, and a Hormuz tanker fire days earlier had carried it to $117. Goldman Sachs reckons roughly $27 of each barrel's price was geopolitical premium. The conflict that began in February has pulled close to 1 billion barrels out of world stockpiles, the chief of Abu Dhabi's ADNOC has said, because Hormuz shipping was disrupted.
Gold ran against crude all session. It gained 2% to move above $3,950 an ounce, recovering from Friday's $3,891, a 13-month trough, CoinTelegraph reported. Economist Robin Brooks tied the two markets together in a blog post, arguing that gold's slide under $4,000 traced back to the oil spike that followed the September 10 attack on Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline. The site's earlier snapshot showed silver 2.39% higher at $50.40.
Monday's slide, step by step
| Stage of Monday trade | Brent | WTI |
|---|---|---|
| Asian trade | $111.92, down 1.33% | $102.34, down 1.71% |
| Morning, around 07:12 GMT | $110.00, down 3.0% | $100.62, down 3.4% |
| 10:20 GMT | $108.64, down $4.79 or 4.2% | $99.71, down $4.41 or 4.2% |
| US session | $105.60, down $7.85 | $96.92, down $7.20 |
| Late US session | About $103.30, 9% lower | Intraday low $95.15, lowest since October 15 |
MarketRadar's arithmetic ties the reports together: the 10:20 GMT levels imply Friday closes near $113.43 for Brent and $104.12 for WTI, and the OilPrice figures imply the same starting points within cents. Measured from $104.12, WTI's $95.15 intraday low was a fall of $8.97, or 8.6%.
Why it matters
Crude near $105 still carries a war premium, and Monday showed how quickly a headline can deflate part of it. Tamas Varga of broker PVM said November had opened with fresh hope of an end to the Iranian deadlock. Tim Waterer of KCM Trade read the session the same way, noting that hopes of progress plus a quiet weekend on the military front had cooled prices for now.
What to watch
- Tuesday's US midterm elections: whether language on Iran hardens once voting passes, as traders had braced for before Monday's slide.
- The follow-up session on the draft text: any date, venue or written version turns a hope into a document.
- Goldman Sachs forecasts: the bank lifted its December 2026 Brent call to $105 from $90 and its WTI call to $94 from $81, while warning Brent could hit $140 in 2027 if Gulf output stays 3.5 million barrels a day below its 2025 average.
Key points
- Brent fell nearly 7% to $105.60, down $7.85; WTI fell $7.20 to $96.92, with a $95.15 low, weakest since October 15.
- Tehran's team left Qatar talks with a draft text in circulation and a further session possible, Reuters reported.
- Pezeshkian said dialogue would be Tehran's approach; Rubio said Trump favours a negotiated outcome and no strike decision has been taken.
- Gold rose 2% to above $3,950 after Friday's 13-month low of $3,891, as the oil spike that had pressed it down unwound.
- Goldman Sachs puts the geopolitical premium near $27 a barrel and says only a settlement markets trust as durable removes it fast.
MarketRadar take
Monday repriced odds, not outcomes: nothing signed, no sanctions lifted, no Hormuz transit restored, so the $27 premium has only partly unwound. Brent near $105 matches Goldman's revised December call exactly, which reads as a market waiting for the draft text to become an agreement. A signed deal points lower for crude; a collapse of the talks, or strikes after the midterms, points the other way just as fast.
