$51.89. Silver closed Friday, November 6, at that print in New York, up $2.82, or 5.75%, from $49.07 a week earlier, per Precious Metals International figures cited by FinanceFeeds. The metal held its ground on a day when a jobs report almost three times stronger than forecast knocked gold down about 1% and pushed December rate-hike odds to 78% (as of November 8, 2026). Silver's next test sits $0.84 below Friday's close: the $51.05 level that FXEmpire's James Hyerczyk calls the line that decides whether this rebound builds or fails.
Friday's session told the story in miniature. Silver slipped to $51.19 early, then recovered to close at $51.94 on FXEmpire's feed, up $0.16, or 0.30%, on the day. The early selling followed the October payrolls print: 165,000 jobs against about 65,000 expected, with unemployment down to 4.1% from 4.2%. Treasury yields rose, the dollar index hit a two-week high at 102.358, and traders repriced the December hike to 78% from 72.8% before the release, per FXEmpire.
Silver refused to follow gold down. That split is the story of the week.
How silver got here
Silver's Friday close still sits 57% below its $121.67 peak of January 29, 2026, a level Kitco records; half of it, $60.835, tops the long retracement zone the metal now trades inside. After the White House named Kevin Warsh, seen as a monetary hawk, as its pick for Federal Reserve chair, silver crashed from triple digits. October did the rest of the damage, with the metal falling about 18% in the month to a 12-month low of $49.07 on October 30.
The midterm elections on November 3 changed the tone. Democrats captured both chambers of Congress, the dollar fell to a one-month low of 101.27 on November 4, and gold rose 3.4% to $4,074.90 the same day. Silver dipped to about $49 first, then climbed back above $50, and silver's midterm jump carried it to $52.39 by November 5. The rally died at $53.48 on Thursday, and Friday's dip to $51.19 tested how much of the bounce was real. Brent crude fell 8.7% to $94.42 on the midterm day, and WTI's worst week since 2022 stripped war premium out of oil.
The industrial side explains why silver held up where gold slipped. About 58% of silver demand comes from industrial use rather than investment, per Silver Institute figures cited by GoldSilver and reported by FinanceFeeds. A payrolls beat points to a stronger economy and more factory demand, which partly offsets the rate effect. US manufacturing output rose 1.3% in the third quarter on an annualized basis, per the Bureau of Labor Statistics, with durable goods up 3.8% and nondurable down 1.6%, FXEmpire reported.
Silver against gold: the Friday split
| Measure | Then | Now |
|---|---|---|
| Silver | $49.07 on Oct 30, the 12-month low | $51.89 at Friday's New York close |
| Silver move | Down about 18% in October | Up 5.75% this week |
| Gold | $4,016.01 on Nov 4, up 2.2% that day | Fell about 1% on Friday |
| Dollar index | 101.27 on Nov 4, a one-month low | 102.358 on Friday, a two-week high |
Silver usually follows gold's direction and moves further in both directions, Discovery Alert notes, because it serves two markets at once: an investment metal and an industrial input for solar panels and electronics. Friday broke that pattern. Gold fell about 1% after the payrolls print, silver finished flat to higher, and the gold-silver ratio dropped to 77.9 from roughly 79 at Thursday's close, per GoldSilver figures cited by FinanceFeeds. The 10-year inflation-indexed Treasury yield stood at 2.64% on November 4, per the Federal Reserve's H.15 release cited by FXEmpire, a positive real-return alternative to holding metal that caps how far the rebound can run while rates stay elevated.
The levels that decide the week
"My bias is still to the downside, but the strength of my conviction will be determined by trader reaction to $51.05," FXEmpire senior analyst James Hyerczyk wrote. His reading is that the first leg up from $48.62 to $53.48 was short-covering, weak sellers bailing out after a long slide, and the retracement that follows is what counts. If buyers come in at $51.05, they try to form a secondary higher bottom. A break over $53.48 turns the minor trend up, with $54.63 and $55.35 next, and that area could launch a move toward the 50-day moving average at $60.02.
| Level | Price | What it means |
|---|---|---|
| Support | $51.05 | Minor 50% level; holding it lets buyers build a higher bottom |
| Next step up | $51.63 | Short-term 50% level; clearing it shows buying strength |
| Minor trend trigger | $53.48 | Thursday's top; a break turns the minor trend up |
| Main trend trigger | $54.63 | A trade through it turns the main trend up |
| Upside target | $55.35 | Intermediate 50% level; the trigger for a larger move |
| Swing bottom | $48.62 | Losing $51.05 reopens this low |
| Downside extension | $46.48-$45.55 | 61.8% retracement zone and below |
A sharp break under $51.05 supports Hyerczyk's downside bias and sets up a retest of $48.62. If that fails, selling could extend into $46.48 to $45.55. FXEmpire's Christopher Lewis takes the same line from the weekly chart, writing that a move above $55 would be needed to turn bullish in the slightest, with futures near $52.08 below a $55-$60 resistance zone. The main trend stays down until $54.63 gives way.
What the big houses expect
| House | Forecast | Horizon |
|---|---|---|
| J.P. Morgan | $63; $70 average | Q4 2026; 2026 average |
| Metals Focus | $72.60 average; $84.40 | 2026 average; 2027 |
| WisdomTree | Toward about $70 | Through Q2 2027 |
The institutional forecasts cluster between $63 and $84.40, Discovery Alert reports, while spot sat near $52 on November 6. J.P. Morgan's $63 for the fourth quarter sits 21.4% above Friday's $51.89 close, and Metals Focus at $84.40 for 2027 sits 62.7% above it. John Finnick of Finnick Consulting, who has bought silver since about $8 an ounce in 2000, sees $48-$50 as a long-term buy zone and the high $30s as an unlikely worst case, per Discovery Alert. History leans the same way: silver finished higher in 9 of 13 years after US midterm elections, with an average gain of about 20%.
The forecasts and the chart disagree. The houses see a recovery; the chart says the downtrend holds until $54.63 gives way.
What to watch
- Tuesday, Nov 10, 8:30 a.m. ET (6:30 p.m. PKT): US October CPI. A hot print leaves the Fed little reason to skip a December hike and would likely push the dollar higher again. A soft reading eases hike odds and gives silver room to extend the rebound.
- Friday, Nov 13, 8:30 a.m. ET (6:30 p.m. PKT): US October PPI, the second inflation test of the week.
- $51.05: the week's first test. A hold keeps the rebound structure intact; a break reopens $48.62.
- $55: the line FXEmpire's Lewis says silver must clear to turn bullish at all.
- Diwali demand in India: the festival falls on Sunday, November 8, and MCX silver traded at Rs 1,84,977 per kg on Friday, with Delhi quoting Rs 1,90,900 per kg including taxes, per ET Now.
- Gold-silver ratio at 77.9: a further fall shows silver keeping its edge over gold, per FinanceFeeds.
Key points
- Silver closed Friday at $51.89, up 5.75% on the week from the $49.07 12-month low of October 30.
- The October payrolls beat (165,000 jobs against about 65,000 expected) lifted December hike odds to 78% (as of November 8, 2026) and the dollar index to a two-week high of 102.358.
- FXEmpire's James Hyerczyk puts the week's decision at $51.05, with $55.35 the trigger for a larger move and $48.62 the level that reopens the downside.
- J.P. Morgan, Metals Focus and WisdomTree cluster their forecasts between $63 and $84.40, all above Friday's close.
- US October CPI lands Tuesday, November 10, at 8:30 a.m. ET (6:30 p.m. PKT), with PPI on Friday, November 13.
MarketRadar take
Silver earned its week. A 5.75% rebound off a 12-month low, built on a midterm dollar slide and an industrial bid that let the metal shrug off the strongest payrolls print in months, is a genuine turn in tone. The structure underneath stays fragile: the daily trend is down, the 50-day average sits at $60.02, and December hike odds near 78% (as of November 8, 2026) keep real yields as the headwind. Tuesday's CPI decides which side of $51.05 the week belongs to.
