Corporate treasurers in Brazil did not wait for Monday's opening bell to act on the election result. On runoff Sunday, October 25, company accounts supplied 78% of volume on Mercado Bitcoin, with retail customers supplying 22%, per CoinDesk. Turnover in Tether's USDT on that venue landed nearly 800% above the previous Sunday and more than three times the average of the four Sundays before it. Bitcoin trading on the same venue rose 865% against the prior Sunday. Traditional markets were shut, so firms repriced exposure there before Monday.
The result caught markets positioned otherwise. Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva took 51.79% of valid votes against 48.21% for Senator Flavio Bolsonaro, per TokenPost, after Bolsonaro had finished first in the earlier round. Prediction market Kalshi had put Bolsonaro's chances at 84% in an October 24 preview, per CoinDesk. Three weeks earlier the first round had cut the other way: stocks rose 7.7% while the real gained over 4% on the dollar, per CoinDesk. When the count went the other way, the unwind hit every Brazilian asset class at once.
Monday, October 26, delivered the confirmation. The Ibovespa closed 13.88% lower at 176,608.23, after touching 169,516.43 intraday, a 17.34% drop from the prior close of 205,082.56, per TokenPost. Trading halted for 30 minutes once the index had fallen 10% from Friday's close, per Eurasia Business News. The dollar rose 8.25% against the real to R$5.40, per TokenPost, and CoinDesk put the dollar's daily gain above 8%, its largest since 1999. Binance's real-denominated bitcoin turnover climbed 370% in a session where worldwide BTC/USDT turnover dropped 25%, per CoinDesk. The gap between the two moves runs to 395 percentage points.
| Measure | Figure | Basis |
|---|---|---|
| Mercado Bitcoin corporate share, runoff Sunday | 78% | CoinDesk |
| Mercado Bitcoin USDT volume vs prior Sunday | nearly 800% higher | CoinDesk |
| Mercado Bitcoin bitcoin volume vs prior Sunday | 865% higher | CoinDesk |
| USDT/BRL turnover across 10 venues vs prior Sunday | 150% higher | Biscoint, per CoinDesk |
| USDC/BRL turnover across 10 venues vs prior Sunday | 318% higher | Biscoint, per CoinDesk |
| Combined USDT/USDC turnover, Monday | R$1.84 billion (about $350 million) | Biscoint, per CoinDesk |
| Binance real pair vs global dollar pair | 370% higher vs 25% lower | Biscoint, per CoinDesk |
| Ibovespa close, October 26 | 13.88% lower at 176,608.23 | Per TokenPost |
Why it matters
Sunday trading filled a gap that banks and stock exchanges could not. With traditional venues closed, firms used crypto rails to shift part of their treasuries into dollar-linked assets before the real repriced, and Mercado Bitcoin research analyst Pedro Fontes wrote in a note sent to CoinDesk that the episode strengthens the case for holding part of a treasury outside the real, per CoinDesk.
In real terms bitcoin added 9.4%, while in USDT terms it eased 0.2%, per CoinDesk.
That split reads as a currency move wearing a crypto label rather than a crypto rally. For traders watching Binance flows, that split is the tell.
Company clients kept as much as 15% of assets there, per CoinDesk, so Sunday extended an existing channel. Background on the venue's Brazil push: Binance Brazil services.
What to watch
- Lula's finance minister pick and first fiscal statement, which will set how much of the 13.88% drop reverses.
- The real around R$5.40: a hold above that zone keeps corporate dollar demand elevated.
- Whether Monday's R$1.84 billion of combined USDT and USDC turnover stays above the prior week's pace.
- Binance bitcoin-real flows vs the global pair: a narrowing gap signals the local panic trade unwinding.
Key points
- Company accounts supplied 78% of Mercado Bitcoin's runoff-Sunday volume; retail supplied 22%.
- On Mercado Bitcoin, USDT turnover landed nearly 800% above the prior Sunday and bitcoin turnover rose 865%.
- Across 10 venues tracked by Biscoint, USDT/real turnover rose 150% and USDC/real turnover 318%.
- Monday USDT/USDC turnover hit R$1.84 billion, about $350 million, up 65% on the week, with bitcoin above 1,336 BTC.
- The Ibovespa's October 26 drop was its worst single session since March 2020; the dollar climbed 8.25% to R$5.40.
MarketRadar take
Treat this as a currency hedge story first and a crypto story second. The 395-percentage-point gap between Binance's real pair and the global dollar pair shows where the urgency lived, and bitcoin priced in reais rose 9.4% while the USDT price slipped 0.2%, which points to the real repricing rather than fresh bitcoin demand. Stablecoin demand in Brazil looks supported while the real stays near R$5.40, but a credible fiscal statement or steadier real would drain Sunday's urgency. Watch the real pair, not the global pair, for the next signal.
