Bitcoin spent Monday clinging to $80,000. CoinDesk put it near $80,400 after an Asian dip to about $79,300; MarketRadar's snapshot agreed at $80,253. Unchained's CoinGecko read had it at $79,785 at 08:07 UTC, $80,440 by 09:40 UTC. The round number held. Barely. Ether traded near $2,331, XRP at $1.29, Solana near $101.
The backdrop explains the caution. Bitcoin stood near $84,080 when Thursday began, per Unchained — about 4.4% above Monday's zone — after a Saturday slide to $79,146. Asian equities added to the gloom: the Kospi fell about 1.5% and the Nikkei 225 0.8%, while US stock futures ticked up around 0.3% after Friday's selloff.
Wednesday is why everyone waits. The Federal Reserve announces its October 27-28 decision that day, following its September 16 move to a 3.75%-4% target range, the first hike since 2023.
CME FedWatch pricing on Monday morning gave about a 90% chance of no change — Unchained recorded 90.6% for a hold, 9.4% for a rise, at 4:05 a.m. CT — with December-hike odds near 80%. That December number matches MarketRadar's standing macro read from October 23. The real question is what Chair Kevin Warsh signals about December, not whether the Fed moves at all.
Fund flows gave traders a second reason to stay light. US spot bitcoin ETFs lost a net $137.9 million on Friday, October 23, a day after $635.6 million left on Thursday — a $773.5 million two-session drain in Farside Investors data. BlackRock's IBIT made up $110.3 million of Friday's exit, Fidelity's FBTC $31.8 million, partly offset by $4.2 million into Morgan Stanley's MSBT.
The week still closed provisionally up $301.2 million after Monday-Wednesday inflows of $1,074.7 million. One fund's Friday figure was still missing, so that weekly total stays provisional.
A high-profile exit fed the weekend chatter. Arthur Hayes, Maelstrom's chief investment officer, said on Saturday he had closed the fund's whole directional book; on-chain trackers counted about $22.28 million of sales across seven tokens. The biggest slice was 6,400 ether at about $15.2 million, then 14 million Ethena at about $2.76 million and 323,000 Uniswap at about $2.24 million.
Hayes said he expected crypto to "go down to go up" and called macro and geopolitical conditions "a bit dicey". Uniswap rose 1.9% on Monday regardless, and Ethena added around 1%.
Oil was the third moving part, and the only one that eased. US crude dropped about 2% to near $101 a barrel on Monday, and Brent eased to around $110.
Qatar's mediators were in Tehran on Sunday; Trump ruled out a strike that day, keeping the option open. MarketRadar's snapshot had WTI at $101.2, down 1.99%. Brent had hit near $117 on Friday, its highest since 2022, so Monday's retreat cooled the inflation argument for December without removing the risk.
Why it matters
Three forces are hitting one trade at once: a Fed verdict in 48 hours, two days of heavy ETF redemptions, and an oil market still priced for Middle East risk. That mix explains a morning that swung both sides of $80,000 with neither side winning. Positioning backs the waiting mood: futures open interest hit $139.9 billion, up 0.85% on the day, while forced sales fell 71% to $153 million.
What to watch
- Wednesday's Fed decision and Warsh's press conference, and whether December-hike odds near 80% firm or soften.
- The next ETF flow print: a third straight outflow day turns a blip into a trend.
- Iran-talk headlines: Brent back near Friday's $117 high revives the inflation case for December.
- Whether Bitcoin keeps the $79,146 weekend low, or surrenders it and reworks $78,000 support.
Key points
- Bitcoin near $80,400 after an Asian dip to $79,300; snapshot $80,253.
- About 4.4% under Thursday's $84,080; Saturday low $79,146.
- Fed verdict due Wednesday: about 90% odds of no change, 80% for December.
- ETFs: $137.9 million out Friday, $635.6 million out Thursday, $773.5 million over two days.
- Hayes sold about $22.28 million of tokens Saturday, led by 6,400 ether.
- WTI near $101, down about 2%; Brent around $110.
MarketRadar take
| MarketRadar check | Reading on Monday |
|---|---|
| Bitcoin vs Thursday | Near $84,080 to near $80,400 = about -$3,680, or -4.4% |
| ETF two-day flow | -$635.6M (Thu) + -$137.9M (Fri) = -$773.5M |
| Futures mood | Open interest $139.9B (+0.85%), liquidations $153M (-71%) |
| Snapshot cross-check | BTC $80,253 (-0.09%), ETH $2,328, WTI $101.2 (-1.99%) |
The tape reads as a market on pause, not a market in panic. Buyers defended $80,000; leverage is not stretched. Wednesday breaks the tie: a firm-December statement pressures the $79,000 floor, while a softer tone tests the $82,000-$82,500 zone for the first time since Thursday. Until Warsh speaks, $80,000 is the whole argument in one number.
