Phil Flynn, senior analyst at the Price Futures Group, told Reuters the market's worry had flipped: a few months ago it was "a fear of shortage", and now it is "a fear of surplus".
Brent crude settled at $95.84 a barrel on Friday, up 2 cents, while West Texas Intermediate finished at $88.56, down 18 cents, per Reuters. Both fell about 2.5% on the week, their second straight weekly decline, after Brent dropped 16% and WTI 13% the week before. The International Energy Agency said this quarter brings the first oil surplus since the war began. Nine months ago traders feared a shortage; now they price a glut.
The numbers tell the turn in one line. Brent has lost about 18% in two weeks. WTI has lost about 15%.
How the week unfolded
- Brent reaches a six-month high in late October, with the peak above $117.
- November 3: Brent falls 7% to $105.60 as hopes for Iran diplomacy build.
- WTI closes the week at $90.83 on November 6; Brent falls 16% and WTI 13% on the week, per Reuters.
- Brent touches $89.70 on November 10, its first print under $90 since August, and WTI falls 2.27% to $84.77.
- On November 11, Emirates NBD's senior economist said the fresh tanker attacks had cooled hopes for a diplomatic deal and pushed Brent 1.4% higher to $92.76, per The National.
- November 12: Iran's military says explosions hit four tankers in the strait, a claim Reuters has not verified. Houthi forces say they struck a pumping station on Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline, the Yanbu facility and an Aramco building in Riyadh. Trump wrote on Truth Social that the United States does not need a deal with Iran.
- November 13: The IEA calls a surplus for this quarter; Brent settles at $95.84 and WTI at $88.56, per Reuters.
The background: from near $130 to a surplus call
The war began in February 2026. Strikes in March and April pushed Brent near $130, per MarketRadar's November 10 report. The turn came fast: diplomacy hopes, a US midterm result that punished the party in power, and Washington's shift to a blockade of Iranian oil. Trump signalled he has no plan to resume hostilities after heavy midterm losses for his party, per The National, and told Vice President JD Vance to turn to domestic issues instead of the Iran talks, per Bloomberg. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has urged Trump to resume attacks.
The physical market moved with the politics. The IEA added that consumption has taken a hit this year and that fuel demand growth for transport next year will be modest, per Bloomberg. US demand is softening: crude and fuel stocks rose last week, the Energy Information Administration reported on Thursday, per Reuters, and refinery runs hit a seasonal record, per Bloomberg. Verisk Maplecroft counted 36 attacks on commercial vessels in October across the Persian Gulf, the Strait of Hormuz and the Gulf of Oman, the most in any month since the war began, per Bloomberg.
Levels to watch
FXEmpire's Vladimir Zernov set out the levels. Natural gas closed at $3.09, up 0.62%, after EIA storage rose 61 billion cubic feet against a 66 billion forecast.
| Benchmark | Friday close | Resistance above | Support below |
|---|---|---|---|
| Brent | $95.84 | $95.50-$96.00, then $100.00-$100.50; 50-day average $104.13 | $95.00, then $91.00-$91.50, then $89.00 |
| WTI | $88.56 | $87.50-$88.00, then $90.00, then $91.50-$92.00 | $85.00, then $83.00-$83.50 |
| Natural gas | $3.09 | 50-day average $3.27, then $3.40-$3.43 | $3.20-$3.23, then $3.00-$3.03 |
Brent fell 16% last week and about 2.5% this week, a drop of about 18% in two weeks. WTI fell 13% and then about 2.5%, a drop of about 15%. Brent still sits more than 18% below the late-October peak above $117, yet almost 7% above Tuesday's $89.70 low. WTI settled at $88.56, above the $87.50-$88.00 band FXEmpire named as resistance, with $90.00 next above, while Brent settled inside its $95.50-$96.00 band and needs a close above $96.00 to open the way toward $100.00-$100.50.
Why it matters
Cheaper crude feeds into the inflation prints that set the Federal Reserve's December decision. October CPI ran hot at 0.4% on the month for the headline and 0.3% for the core, both above consensus, per the Bureau of Labor Statistics, while October PPI printed cooler on November 13 at 0.3% on the month and 6.5% on the year. Brent has fallen from above $117 in late October to $95.84, an unwind MarketRadar tracked on November 10. The energy shock has already moved central banks: the Bank of England raised its rate to 4.00% on November 5 and the Reserve Bank of Australia raised its cash rate to 4.85% on November 3, with energy prices cited as a driver in both cases. A 25-basis-point December Fed hike is fully priced, with a 14.5% chance of a half-point move as of November 13, per Reuters and CME FedWatch.
At the pump, US gasoline slipped under $4 a gallon, a first since July, as MarketRadar reported on November 10. Angola's eurobonds led the slide among oil exporters' debt when Brent broke under $90, as reported in the same November 10 piece.
What to watch
- Whether Brent settles above $96.00, the top of the band FXEmpire named, or slips back toward $95.00 and $91.00-$91.50.
- Whether WTI holds above the $87.50-$88.00 band after Friday's $88.56 close, per FXEmpire.
- Further attacks on tankers and Saudi energy infrastructure.
- The next EIA inventory report and natural gas storage data, after US crude and fuel stocks rose last week.
- The Federal Reserve's December 8-9 meeting, with a 25-basis-point hike fully priced, per Reuters and CME FedWatch; November CPI lands December 10.
Key points
- Brent settled at $95.84 and WTI at $88.56, down about 2.5% on the week, per Reuters.
- The IEA said this quarter brings the first oil surplus since the war began, per Bloomberg.
- Brent has fallen about 18% in two weeks and WTI about 15%.
- October saw 36 attacks on commercial vessels across the Persian Gulf, the Strait of Hormuz and the Gulf of Oman, the most in any month since the war began, per Verisk Maplecroft via Bloomberg.
- Trump said the US does not need a deal with Iran, and told Vice President JD Vance to turn to domestic issues rather than Iran negotiations, per Bloomberg.
MarketRadar take
The balance of the oil market has flipped in a fortnight, from shortage fear to surplus math, and the IEA's Friday call locks in that shift for this quarter. Friday's $2 swing in Brent shows the market still pays for disruption risk. WTI closed above its $87.50-$88.00 resistance band and Brent settled inside $95.50-$96.00, so the next sessions test which story sets the tone. A second weekly decline after a 16% rout reads as a war premium repriced.
