November natural gas futures ended a choppy week at $3.116 on Friday, backing off from Monday's $3.283 — the contract's best print in nearly three weeks. The catalyst was Thursday's EIA storage report: a 67-billion-cubic-foot injection for the week ended October 9, versus 76 Bcf expected in a Reuters poll and 23 Bcf light of the 90 Bcf five-year norm. Futures jumped 2% that session to settle at $3.262, then surrendered most of the gain on Friday as mild-weather forecasts capped demand. From the prior Friday's $3.22 close, the contract lost about 3.2% on the week.
The weekly chart masks the real development. The storage cushion that has weighed on prices all autumn is evaporating at roughly 20 Bcf a week.
On September 4, the surplus stood at 148 Bcf over the five-year norm; Thursday's print put total working gas at 3,567 Bcf, leaving just 45 Bcf of surplus — a 103 Bcf erosion in five weeks. Stocks are 1.3% above the five-year norm of 3,522 Bcf but 3.9% below the 3,710 Bcf held a year ago. The regional detail is harsher than the headline: South Central salt caverns, the market's fastest-response storage, hold 236 Bcf — nearly 22% below last year and about 15% under their seasonal norm. Salt capacity is the buffer that matters in a sudden cold snap. All other regions added gas except the Pacific, with the Midwest leading the builds and the East rising 22 Bcf to 884 Bcf. The injection season is nearly done, and the EIA's October outlook has end-of-month inventories at 3,850 Bcf — just 2% over the five-year norm as the heating season begins.
Production explains most of the squeeze. LSEG data show Lower 48 output averaged 110.7 Bcf/d this month, down from the 113.3 Bcf/d records of August and September, and daily output sank to a five-month low of 108.8 Bcf/d on Wednesday. Hurricane Isaias forced Gulf of Mexico shut-ins, while pipeline outages and force majeure incidents in Kentucky, Texas and West Virginia kept more supply off the market. LNG demand has not blinked: feedgas flows to US export plants averaged 17.6 Bcf/d this month against September's 17.9, with daily deliveries recently touching 18.72 million dekatherms — while Cove Point, Golden Pass and Freeport still work back from maintenance.
Why it matters
Against that tight supply sits genuinely soft demand. NOAA assigns an 80% probability of above-normal temperatures across the north-central US in the coming week, and forecasters see mild conditions holding through October 29–30. LSEG pegs Lower 48 demand, including exports, at 104.7 Bcf/d this week rising to 106.0 next — hardly heating-season panic, in the year's softest demand window. Heating degree days are running about 10% under the ten-year norm. The result is a market trading the October 22 storage report — the final print before the October 28 expiry of the November contract — almost as a binary event. Energy traders have seen this split-screen before: crude has been running on war-risk premium, with WTI crude topping $100 on US-Iran strike bets, while gas trades almost purely on the storage math.
That is why the next two weeks decide the winter narrative, not the week just gone.
What to watch
- EIA storage report, October 22 — the last print before the November contract expires. Another injection below 70 Bcf would drive the surplus toward zero and put the $3.30 test squarely back on the table.
- NOAA outlook updates — a colder revision for early November is the classic trigger for a winter-contract rally.
- Production rebound — Gulf output is restarting and Appalachian pipeline fixes are coming; a snap back toward 113 Bcf/d would flip the supply story fast.
- The technical box — $3.30–$3.40 is the barrier bulls keep failing against (FXEmpire, October 14), while the 200-day EMA near $3.09 and the $3.146–$3.087 retracement zone mark the floor (FXEmpire, October 16).
MarketRadar take
Neutral-to-bullish into expiry. The storage trend is doing the heavy lifting: with the surplus down two-thirds in five weeks and production 2.5 Bcf/d off its record, the $3.10 area has a genuine supply cushion beneath it. The cap is weather — until forecasts turn cold, $3.30 stays the line in the sand, and a production rebound would hand the advantage back to sellers. The October 22 storage print decides which side blinks first.
| EIA storage scoreboard (week ended Oct 9) | Bcf |
|---|---|
| Actual injection | 67 |
| Reuters poll consensus | 76 |
| Five-year norm | 90 |
| Same week last year | 80 |
| Prior week | 85 |
| Total working gas | 3,567 |
| Vs five-year norm (3,522) | +45 |
| Vs year-ago (3,710) | -143 |
