Two earnings beats hit the same tape on Friday, and the market paid them in opposite directions. Cerebras Systems jumped nearly 12% before the open. The chipmaker reported a surprise third-quarter profit and raised its 2026 sales forecast. Cisco Systems fell more than 5% in the session, even after record quarterly revenue and a higher full-year outlook. The split came on a weak tape. The Dow was off 0.4% in morning trades, the S&P 500 1% lower and the Nasdaq down 1.5%, per Investor's Business Daily. October producer prices rose less than expected. Microsoft also slipped 0.5% after an outage hit Outlook and Teams.
Cerebras gave traders the cleaner beat of the two. Adjusted sales for the quarter reached $230.9 million. The figure sits 70% above the year-ago quarter and ahead of the $214.7 million analysts had pencilled in. The bottom line flipped to a $29.82 million adjusted profit. Twelve months earlier the same line showed a $10.86 million adjusted loss. Analysts had expected a $38.4 million loss, per LSEG data cited by Reuters. On a per-share basis the print was 12 cents against an expected loss of 14 cents. Management lifted the 2026 adjusted revenue range to $940-960 million, against $880-890 million before. It also confirmed a Microsoft cloud agreement, with details to follow next year. The cloud and services line — the one carrying the OpenAI work — came in at $144.9 million, more than three times its year-ago level. As of September 30, the OpenAI agreement accounts for $26.1 billion of remaining performance obligations. Feldman flagged "rapid change" and "compute shortages" as the two certainties ahead.
The jump still leaves Cerebras deep below its debut price. Thursday's close of $97.75 sat 47.2% under the $185 May IPO price. Friday's session high of $120.44 still leaves the stock 34.9% below that debut level.
Cisco's quarter was, on paper, the stronger of the two, and the market sold it anyway. A year earlier the networking group booked $14.88 billion of revenue. The new print is $18.5 billion, 24% higher and a record. Non-GAAP earnings reached $1.40 a share against a $1.33 consensus. Growth ran at its fastest pace in more than 15 years. Networking sales jumped 43% to $11.1 billion. Orders grew 21% across the quarter ended October 24 — 14% once hyperscalers are stripped out. The full-year revenue range moved up to $74.8-75.8 billion from $72.2-73.4 billion. The hyperscaler AI revenue target rose to $9 billion from $7.5 billion in August, more than twice the roughly $4 billion booked in fiscal 2026. Yet the shares closed Thursday at $102.01, up 1.24% on the day. They had risen 35% across 2026 before the report, while the Nasdaq gained about 9% over the same stretch. Friday's session opened at $100.47, touched $95.72 and sat 5.8% lower at the 22:13 PKT snapshot. The second-quarter guide steps down from the record just reported. Revenue is guided to $18.0-18.2 billion, with non-GAAP earnings of $1.34-1.36 a share. That gave sellers a hook.
| Company | Quarter revenue | Earnings per share | Full-year guide change | Friday move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cerebras (CBRS) | $230.9M, up 70% | $0.12 vs -$0.14 expected | 2026 revenue $940-960M, was $880-890M | +12% premarket; $120.44 high |
| Cisco (CSCO) | $18.5B, up 24% | $1.40 vs $1.33 expected | FY27 revenue $74.8-75.8B, was $72.2-73.4B | -5.8% in session; low $95.72 |
The guide math shows why the reactions diverged in scale. Cerebras lifted its 2026 revenue midpoint by $65 million — a 7.3% raise on an $885 million base. Cisco added $2.6 billion at the low end of its range, a 3.6% raise on a $72.2 billion base. A small base turns a modest dollar raise into a large percentage move. Cerebras started the day 47.2% below its IPO price, so the same beat carried far more catch-up energy. The October PPI backdrop did not help growth names either. Headline prices rose 0.3% on the month and 6.5% on the year, slightly below the 0.4% and 6.6% expected. Core came in at 0.3% and 5.0%, in line. The 10-year Treasury yield still rose 3 basis points to 5.14%. Gold held at $3,888.9, bitcoin slipped 4.04% to $68,761 and WTI crude eased 0.41% to $88.40 in the MarketRadar snapshot at 22:13 PKT.
Why it matters
The pair reads as a test of the AI-spending story from both ends. Cerebras eased the worry that AI infrastructure demand is fading. A raised forecast, a Microsoft deal and a $26.1 billion OpenAI obligation book all point to orders still arriving. Cisco showed the other side. Hyperscaler AI revenue is set to double, and networking sales rose 43%. Yet the shares fell. A 35% year-to-date run and a softer second-quarter guide left no room for a beat to surprise. With a 25-basis-point December Fed hike fully priced and a 14.5% chance of a half-point move as of November 13, the tape is punishing anything priced for perfection. It is rewarding the names priced for disappointment instead.
What to watch
- Whether Cerebras holds its gap above the $97.75 Thursday close, or gives back the move toward $101.18, the session low.
- Whether Cisco steadies near $95.72, the session low, or extends the slide into next week.
- Nvidia earnings on November 17, the next read on AI hardware demand under interim chief Colette Kress.
- The December 8-9 Fed meeting, with the next CPI print due December 10, one day after the decision.
Key points
- Cerebras jumped nearly 12% premarket after Q3 adjusted sales of $230.9 million, up 70%, beat the $214.7 million estimate; adjusted profit was $29.82 million versus a $10.86 million loss a year earlier.
- Cerebras raised its 2026 adjusted revenue forecast to $940-960 million, against $880-890 million before, and agreed a Microsoft cloud deal.
- Cerebras shares rose more than 17% in Thursday's extended session and traded as high as $120.44 on Friday, still 34.9% below the $185 May IPO price.
- Cisco posted record Q1 fiscal 2027 revenue of $18.5 billion, up 24%, with non-GAAP earnings of $1.40 a share against $1.33 expected, and raised its full-year outlook to $74.8-75.8 billion.
- Cisco fell 5.8% in Friday's session to a low of $95.72 after gaining 35% across 2026 before the report.
- October PPI rose 0.3% on the month and 6.5% on the year, slightly cooler than expected; core was 0.3% and 5.0%, in line.
MarketRadar take
Friday separated the beat from the reaction. Cerebras earned its jump. A profit where a loss was expected, a 7.3% lift to the revenue midpoint and a Microsoft deal give the move a footing beyond the headline. Cisco's selloff says less about its quarter, which set records on nearly every line, than about its starting point. The stock was up 35% into the print, with a second-quarter guide that steps down. The $97.75 Thursday close is the line for Cerebras now. The $95.72 low is the line for Cisco. Both hold or break on the next AI datapoint. Nvidia's November 17 report is the one that decides which side of this split the market keeps.
