Space Exploration Technologies closed at $145.22 on October 28, down $3.36, or 2.26%, from the $148.58 prior close. That close sits 7.6% above the $135 IPO price set on June 11, and 35.6% below the $225.64 high printed on June 16. A Motley Fool analysis on Nasdaq on October 28 frames the next question in one number: the typical new listing has already contained a slide larger than the one SpaceX has absorbed so far.
LPL Financial studied IPOs raising at least $50 million over three decades to April 2025, nearly 1,500 listings in total, per LPL Research. The median maximum drawdown inside year one was 48.0%. The average was 48.9%. Only 40.6% beat the S&P 500 in that first year. The median one-year return was -4.7%, per the Motley Fool analysis.
A 48% interim slide is not a 48% one-year loss. That distinction is the whole point.
Why it matters
SpaceX has already traded through part of the pattern: $135 IPO price, about $161 first-day close, $225.64 peak, $145.22 on October 28. The 2027 test is whether the months to the June 2027 one-year mark deepen the peak-to-trough slide, or whether contracted revenue holds $135 as a floor. Note the statistic's shape: the 48% median is a peak-to-trough drawdown inside year one, and SpaceX has already absorbed 35.6% of it from the $225.64 peak. Reaching the median would mean $117.33, a further 19.2% below the October 28 close, not another 48% from here.
Third-quarter results, reported October 20, supply the bull case in numbers. Revenue reached $14.58 billion, up 161% from a year earlier, with net income of $4.4 billion and adjusted EBITDA of $8.8 billion, per company results covered by Gulf News and Quiver Quantitative. Capital spending hit $19.6 billion, including $16.4 billion for Super Intelligence. Connectivity revenue rose 69% to $5.2 billion, with operating income of $2.4 billion, up 99%. Starlink ended September with 13.6 million consumer subscribers, up 89% from a year earlier and up 1.6 million from June, per the Motley Fool and Gulf News. Average revenue per user rose 4.5% from the prior quarter to $69.
Two compute contracts sit behind the AI segment. Anthropic's S-1 filing, released October 26, puts SpaceXAI spending at up to $120.5 billion over terms running into 2029, at about $3.1 billion a month once capacity is fully delivered, expected in December 2026, per Barron's. That figure is a ceiling, not a guaranteed total: after initial periods ending in January and March 2027, either side can cancel on 90 days' notice, per Barron's. Alphabet's Google pays $920 million a month from October 2026 through June 2029 for about 110,000 Nvidia GPUs, per Reuters. Musk said on October 25 that SpaceX had closed $40 billion in debt for GPUs arriving in the first two quarters of 2027, per Business Times; Bloomberg reported pricing talks were still continuing, per TechSpot.
A possible Tesla combination is the second 2027 thread. Both boards formed special committees on October 20, per October 22 10-Q filings covered by Reuters, and neither has reached a determination. Any deal needs committee, board and controlling-shareholder approval, per the SpaceX filing quoted by Reuters. Reuters put analyst estimates for a combined company at about $3.5 trillion.
| MarketRadar arithmetic: the 48% median, applied correctly | Reference price | Level |
|---|---|---|
| June 16 peak | $225.64 | $117.33 (48% below the peak) |
| October 28 close | $145.22 | $117.33 is a further 19.2% below the close |
These are arithmetic reference points from the LPL median, not forecasts. The $117.33 level is 48% below the June peak; from the October 28 close it would take a further 19.2% fall to get there. Applying 48% to the current price instead would give $75.51, but that is not what the LPL statistic describes, so it is not used here.
What to watch
- October 29: European Central Bank decision, plus US PCE and advance third-quarter GDP at 12:30 GMT.
- December 2026: full delivery of Anthropic's contracted SpaceXAI capacity, at about $3.1 billion a month, per Barron's.
- January and March 2027: ends of the initial periods in the Anthropic agreements, after which 90-day cancellation applies, per Barron's.
- First two quarters of 2027: arrival of GPUs behind the $40 billion financing, per Business Times.
- The $135 IPO price and the $148.58 October 27 close as the nearest reference levels, against the $225.64 June peak.
Key points
- LPL Research: median first-year maximum drawdown of 48.0% across nearly 1,500 IPOs; median one-year return -4.7%, per the Motley Fool.
- SPCX closed October 28 at $145.22, down 2.26% on the day, 7.6% above the $135 IPO price and 35.6% below the $225.64 peak.
- Third-quarter revenue of $14.58 billion rose 161%; Connectivity contributed $5.2 billion, Space $1.8 billion, and Super Intelligence $7.6 billion, per Gulf News and Quiver Quantitative.
- Starlink reached 13.6 million subscribers at September 30, up 89% from a year earlier, per the Motley Fool and Gulf News.
- Anthropic's S-1 puts SpaceXAI spending at up to $120.5 billion into 2029, cancelable on 90 days after early-2027 periods, per Barron's; Google pays $920 million a month to June 2029, per Reuters.
- SpaceX and Tesla boards formed special committees on October 20; no determination has been made, per Reuters coverage of the October 22 filings.
MarketRadar take
LPL's history does not predict a SpaceX fall, and the October 28 close does not confirm one. It sets the burden of proof: a listing already down 35.6% from its peak needs contracted cash to hold its IPO price through June 2027. SpaceX has the contracts on paper and $19.6 billion of quarterly capex to match. Watch December delivery, the early-2027 cancellation windows and the $135 level. If contracts convert at the stated monthly rates, the drawdown pattern breaks. If they slip, the LPL median maps how far new listings have historically slid.
Read the October 28 rate decision in Fed holds rates at 3.75%-4% as S&P 500 edges up, Nasdaq slips after decision and the prior session in S&P 500, Nasdaq rise on chip rally as Dow slips ahead of Fed decision.
